Imagine that tomorrow a new viral disease moves into the human population. The first recognized case is in Shanghai, China, a major international trade city located on the East China Sea (see the map below). This virus is as deadly (virulent) as some of the worst Ebola epidemics (90% mortality), it has an incubation period of a month from the time of exposure and infected people are contagious for 2 weeks before serious symptoms appear. During the 2 week period of contagion, the people have what appears to be a typical cold virus. This virus spreads via all mechanisms (contact, body fluids, and airborne) and a very low dose of the virus is necessary for infection. When the symptoms emerge, they are much like Ebola and other hemorrhagic fevers; ultimately, the number of platelets (cell fragments involved in the blood clotting process) drops and bleeding will occur anywhere in the body. The body fluids are highly contagious and patients usually live about 3 days without supportive care and 5-6 days with supportive care.
Port of Shanghai, China. Source: Commons.wikimedia/DEETs
Based on the above descriiption, explain how you think the virus will spread around the world, what the likelihood of containing this virus will be, and any regions of the world where you think the virus is unlikely to reach. Use specific information from the descriiption to support your arguments.
At what point in the epidemic do you think we would know enough about the dangers of this virus to take action? For example, will it still be contained in Shanghai? To China? Will it have reached the U.S.? Will it already be widespread in the U.S.?
If you were part of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control what actions would you recommend this country take in the face of such a threat? Justify your answer. What type of resistance do you think there would be to your recommendations?
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